Update on High-Frequency Indicators, December 2022

Cyclical activity weakened in November as COVID controls and lockdowns intensified last month, and the decline in export-driven manufacturing activity is accelerating. Credit growth should improve from October, but is still driven by public spending and infrastructure investment. Policy measures to provide additional financing to property developers are accumulating, but land sales and housing sales remain anemic, reducing the pipeline of construction for next year.

Posted December 7, 2022
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Property Market Chartbook, November 2022

Intensifying COVID controls and lockdowns pressured property sales and land sales in October and early November. Government efforts to support the property sector accelerated as well, with promises of new credit support for developers that have not yet defaulted and new liquidity from the central bank balance sheet to complete unfinished houses. Construction momentum will continue weakening in the coming months given declining land sales and LGFVs’ much stronger recent presence within the land market.

Posted November 28, 2022
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China’s Electric Vehicle Industry in Context

China’s electric vehicle (EV) industry has expanded much faster in recent years than forecasters have expected. The entire EV value chain offers China the potential for a meaningful but limited driver of economic growth outside of traditional engines such as property and infrastructure construction. But the industry is facing key headwinds including raw materials pricing and availability, as well as US export controls and rising financial losses. This note reviews the broader macroeconomic significance of China’s EV industry and its associated value chain, and details the structure and key players within the most significant sectors of the industry.

Posted November 23, 2022
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