With key aspects of the Trump-era phase one deal having now expired, questions loom about what comes next for US trade strategy toward China. Given domestic considerations in both countries, the prospect of a “phase two” deal covering substantive issues is remote. Instead, the Biden administration appears likely to focus efforts on litigating the shortfall in China’s purchases under phase one and outlining the structure of its regional strategy through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
China’s National People’s Congress convenes next month and will feature the roll-out of the 14th Five-Year Plan. The policy signals sent by China come at a pivotal time. Amid economic headwinds at home and challenges abroad, Beijing will be seeking to shape the narrative around growth in 2021 and beyond, its push for technological self-reliance, and its pathway toward achieving ambitious new climate goals.
