Divergence between continued breakneck property sales and an outright contraction in property starts suggests there is more downside ahead for growth expectations based on future building. More importantly, recent restrictions on property-related lending may cause a sharp turnaround in a bubbly market that has been supported more by leverage than seen in previous years. In addition, balance of payments outflows have returned to a pace faster than $50 billion per month, and acceleration of pressure on the currency elevates the probability of changes in exchange rate management.
