Q2 2020 China Macro Data Recap

China’s economy rebounded to 3.2% y/y GDP growth in Q2, with infrastructure investment and property construction anchoring the recovery. But deflationary pressures are building, because persistent unemployment and weaker household income growth are reducing consumer confidence and discretionary spending. Surprising elements within the data include the stability of China’s exports in recent months and the surge in crude oil imports in June. Trends in the property sector are central to the cyclical outlook in the second half of the year, where we are less constructive because of falling prices and continued tightening measures targeting the sector.

Posted July 17, 2020
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