China’s demographic conditions are turning highly adverse to sustaining high rates of economic growth. The rapid decline in birth rates in the past two years has touched off alarm bells in Beijing, with China’s overall population likely to decline this year or next. The 2020 census data released last year were controversial, as they boosted the past decade’s birth rates, but also did little to alter the medium-term demographic trajectory. More surprising have been the revisions of provincial population data. The coming slowdown in the property sector is likely to be concentrated in provinces that are already seeing declining populations, but where credit growth and housing construction have remained strong over the past five years.
