Property sales have declined in yoy floor space terms in early 2019, especially in Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities, because of a shift in shantytown program compensation away from cash.
Developers are addicted to presales as financing under pressure from continued contraction of shadow banking channels.
Property construction will continue to strengthen for the next several months, as developers build out presold units and shantytown-related units.
Key risk later in 2019 is stalled construction on apartments and falling prices as developers struggle to finance building record-high volumes of presold units.
