Property sector critical source of support for current cyclical activity growth. Construction of previous years’ presales anchoring current stabilization in industrial activity, improvement in June industrial value-added growth to 6.3% y/y.
June property sector data shows modest declines in presales, starts, and investment growth, with risks for slower activity and construction growth later in the year.
Tightening developer financing conditions key causes of structural changes in the property market. Developers raising money via presales, reducing spending on land.
Policy signals toward the property sector still conflicted, varying considerably from locality to locality. Some modest moves toward tightening of developers’ financing recently, and broad-scale easing toward the property sector unlikely in 2019.
