Property sector is a key swing variable for China’s cyclical outlook: supportive so far, but construction may slow later this year. If sales hold up, construction will continue to be supportive through most of 2019
March property sales rebounded modestly, led by large cities, on a low comparison base and policy relaxation. Divergent sales between large and small cities will continue
However, the drop-off in land purchases and sources of funding highlight tightness in developer financial conditions and their vulnerability to slowing sales
If sales slow significantly, key risk beginning in late 2019 is stalled construction on apartments and falling prices as developers struggle to finance the building of presold units
