China’s Overstated Export Resilience

China’s headline exports have been surprisingly resilient in the face of a global recession, because a surge in shipments of home office electronics and medical goods for virus prevention have offset record declines in exports of labor-intensive products. Excluding medical equipment and some categories of consumer electronics, China’s exports declined by 17% y/y in May, a much deeper drop than in April and close to levels seen in other major export economies. Exports should drop further in 2H 2020: improving global demand for labor-intensive products will lag the slowdown in exports of computers and medical goods.

Posted June 24, 2020
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