A Five-Stage Framework for Assessing the Virus and China’s Economy in 2020

Obviously the most pressing question confronting markets right now is how the spread of the coronavirus will impact China’s economy and financial markets in 2020. Given the uncertainty about how long travel restrictions and supply disruptions will remain in place, while workers remain at home, there is still considerable uncertainty about the cyclical outlook for the economy this year. In this brief commentary we attempt to outline the probable phases of the market response to the outbreak and its economic consequences, over the course of 2020.

Posted February 17, 2020
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