While China’s leadership plotted a course for more policy support for the economy in early December, delivery of those easing measures has been sparse. A recovery is more probable than it was a month ago, but is far from assured given the declining effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, headwinds from the property sector, and the continued economic impact of measures to contain COVID. The key risk is that Beijing provides too little policy support to counter these forces, or waits too long to do so.
