China’s Electric Vehicle Industry in Context

China’s electric vehicle (EV) industry has expanded much faster in recent years than forecasters have expected. The entire EV value chain offers China the potential for a meaningful but limited driver of economic growth outside of traditional engines such as property and infrastructure construction. But the industry is facing key headwinds including raw materials pricing and availability, as well as US export controls and rising financial losses. This note reviews the broader macroeconomic significance of China’s EV industry and its associated value chain, and details the structure and key players within the most significant sectors of the industry.

Posted November 23, 2022
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October 2022 China Macro Data Recap

October macroeconomic data showed decelerating growth across the board, with notable weakness in household consumption and consumer credit. Exports declined for the first time since May 2020 and should continue falling in the coming months. With Beijing relaxing guidance on COVID restrictions for localities, there is some hope for an improvement in cyclical momentum and stronger property sales, but the spread of the virus itself remains a critical risk.

Posted November 16, 2022
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Update on High-Frequency Indicators, November 2022

Most high-frequency indicators of cyclical activity moderated in October given shutdowns linked to the 20th Party Congress. Flattering base effects should prevent headline data from falling too sharply, but “zero COVID” policy remains the key uncertainty for consumers and private businesses as the winter approaches and cases are expected to rise again. Credit momentum appears to have stalled in recent weeks, with bill financing rates trending back toward zero at the end of October.

Posted November 8, 2022
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