May 2019 China Macro Data Recap

China’s macroeconomic data showed a sharper decline in most output indicators in May, but a longer holiday during the month contributed to weaker headline figures. More significantly, key property sector indicators are softening, potentially undermining one of the sources of cyclical stabilization so far in 2019. Exports outperformed expectations due to front-loading ahead of new US tariffs, while the interbank market’s reaction to the takeover of Baoshang Bank creates new risks of a sharper slowdown in overall credit growth later this year.

Posted June 21, 2019
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Trade War Chartbook

The attached chartbook offers estimates of the economic impacts of US and Chinese tariffs imposed so far and the potential costs of further escalation, using computable general equilibrium modelling. Results include the impacts on US and Chinese GDP, trade flows, inflation, investment, and other key variables.

Posted June 10, 2019
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Autos: Pile-up in the Rear-View Mirror

The slowdown in auto output that depressed headline industrial production late in 2018 is fading as inventories are starting to fall at manufacturers and dealerships. As a result, the auto sector will likely contribute positively to headline output growth in the next two quarters. Auto sales growth remains soft, however, linked to reduced sales of completed properties and broader maturation of the auto market. A modest improvement in car sales in the second half of 2019 likely hinges on policy support for rural and secondary market purchases, along with the broader cyclical recovery.

Posted May 9, 2019
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