Biden’s Trade Policy: What’s Next?

  • Biden administration is under pressure from the US business community, Congress, and allies to articulate a coherent trade policy, particularly in relation to China.
  • Businesses should plan around the likelihood that Biden will keep tariffs on China in place, possibly for years to come. Any easing of the policy is likely to come via a new and streamlined product exclusion process.
  • The US, however, is likely to ease Trump-era tariffs that affected allies, notably the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, in the hope that this will facilitate closer coordination with partners on China-related concerns.
Posted July 22, 2022
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An OECD For a New Era

September 30th, 2021, marks the 60th anniversary of the creation of the OECD—the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The organization was the post-WWII flagbearer for market economics, offering a positive vision of the benefits of cooperation among market democracies. By emphasizing analytical expertise to find pathways to policy alignment, the OECD achieved success and helped define the character of post-war liberal political systems in competition with authoritarian statism. Today, market economies are struggling to agree on a competition model with non-market statecraft again. Rather than invent a new institution, they should take a fresh look at this existing one.

Posted July 22, 2022
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China’s Growth in 2022

People are ravenous for a return to normal economic activity and to put the pandemic behind them. After two years of economic disruption, it is hard to remember what expectations even were at the start of 2020. Business cycles have been reset, and structural trends like globalization have been materially altered. So investors, policymakers, and business leaders want to believe Beijing when it says that 2022 will pick up right where 2019 left off with a return to 5-5.5% GDP growth. But by our reckoning, in an absolute best-case scenario, Beijing might deliver 4% GDP growth this year; and it is just as reasonable to expect 0% growth, or even a slight contraction. In this note, we break the numbers into investment, consumption and net exports, and do the math.

Posted July 22, 2022
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