Estimating the Impact of a US Outbound Investment Screening Mechanism

Over the past year, US lawmakers have rekindled the idea of creating a mechanism to screen outbound investment for national security and resilience purposes. This week, senators moved to include the National Critical Capabilities Defense Act, one such measure, in a must-pass defense spending bill. This note estimates the bill’s potential impact on US investment in China and outlines implications for businesses.

Posted July 22, 2022
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Biden’s Trade Policy: What’s Next?

  • Biden administration is under pressure from the US business community, Congress, and allies to articulate a coherent trade policy, particularly in relation to China.
  • Businesses should plan around the likelihood that Biden will keep tariffs on China in place, possibly for years to come. Any easing of the policy is likely to come via a new and streamlined product exclusion process.
  • The US, however, is likely to ease Trump-era tariffs that affected allies, notably the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, in the hope that this will facilitate closer coordination with partners on China-related concerns.
Posted July 22, 2022
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An OECD For a New Era

September 30th, 2021, marks the 60th anniversary of the creation of the OECD—the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The organization was the post-WWII flagbearer for market economics, offering a positive vision of the benefits of cooperation among market democracies. By emphasizing analytical expertise to find pathways to policy alignment, the OECD achieved success and helped define the character of post-war liberal political systems in competition with authoritarian statism. Today, market economies are struggling to agree on a competition model with non-market statecraft again. Rather than invent a new institution, they should take a fresh look at this existing one.

Posted July 22, 2022
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