Update on High-Frequency Indicators, October 2022

We introduce a new chartbook for clients covering higher-frequency data concerning trends in China’s industrial output, infrastructure and property construction, and household consumption.

While slower economic growth is highly probable in 2023 as property construction continues to slump and financial stress accumulates, headline data may actually start improving over the next few months as COVID restrictions have been eased in recent weeks. While flattering base effects are playing a role, September and Q3 output data are more likely to surprise on the strong side than to disappoint market expectations. However, this trend may be short-lived as demand indicators show far more tepid improvements and inventories are growing.

Posted October 12, 2022
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