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Reality Check: 2021 Post-Holiday High-Frequency Indicators

Get ready for some mind-bogglingly strong headline growth rates from China’s output data in January and February, flattered by comparisons to an earlier Chinese New Year holiday and the collapse of economic activity during last year’s COVID outbreak. But most high-frequency indicators in early 2021 are actually reporting levels of activity well below those in “normal” years. See the attached chartbook for details on indicators in transportation, household consumption, steel trading, construction, auto output, and other sectors.

Posted March 15, 2021
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