China’s Q3 macroeconomic data will likely downgrade expectations of a quick recovery in Q4 and early 2022, given the pressures currently facing the property sector. Real GDP growth slowed to 4.9% y/y, and q/q data suggest annualized growth barely exceeding 2% so far in 2021. Slowing property and infrastructure construction and widespread power shortages depressed heavy industrial activity, while private sector credit demand remains soft. Export-oriented manufacturing is still the bright spot in the economy, with outbound shipments hitting new records in value terms, while nearly matching record volumes from earlier this year.
