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Q3 2020 China Macro Data Recap

China’s official Q3 macroeconomic data showed a continued post-COVID recovery, with real GDP growth accelerating to 4.9% y/y. However, the data releases were notable in their inconsistencies, and do not offer a coherent explanation why China’s unbalanced recovery is extending. In particular, industrial output growth accelerating to an 18-month high of 6.9% is difficult to reconcile with several heavy industrial components reporting slower growth, and clear signals of weakening property construction, as well as building deflationary pressures. External trade remains a bright spot, as China’s imports surprised positively to a new monthly record over $200 billion, with chips and imports from the United States leading the way.

Posted October 19, 2020
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