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Industrial Slowdowns, Then and Now

China’s economy is slowing in early 2018, but how does this year compare to previous slowdowns? The last period of significant weakness in China’s heavy industries in late 2014 and 2015 was characterized by a sharp decline in commodity prices and USD strength. Data from our proprietary indicator of industrial output, the R-CAT, shows an outright broad-based y/y decline in output across most industries at present. Interestingly, the current industrial slowdown in 2018 also appears more commodity-intensive than in the past, while output of consumer goods is stabilizing.

Posted May 14, 2018
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