Export Engine Losing Steam, But Prices Rising

China reported another solid month of export growth in March, with outbound shipments increasing 14.7% y/y in value terms. But volumes of exports surprisingly collapsed by 52%, reflecting both weaker new orders and logistical problems tied to COVID restrictions, which will continue to feed into higher global prices for Chinese goods. Export growth is likely to roll over in value terms as early as Q2, and both the economy and the exchange rate will lose a key source of support from the past two years.

Posted April 14, 2022
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