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China’s Growth in 2022

People are ravenous for a return to normal economic activity and to put the pandemic behind them. After two years of economic disruption, it is hard to remember what expectations even were at the start of 2020. Business cycles have been reset, and structural trends like globalization have been materially altered. So investors, policymakers, and business leaders want to believe Beijing when it says that 2022 will pick up right where 2019 left off with a return to 5-5.5% GDP growth. But by our reckoning, in an absolute best-case scenario, Beijing might deliver 4% GDP growth this year; and it is just as reasonable to expect 0% growth, or even a slight contraction. In this note, we break the numbers into investment, consumption and net exports, and do the math.

Posted July 22, 2022
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